Hedging Through Soft Power: Indonesia’s Position Towards Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy Amidst Regional Geopolitics

Abstract

Taiwan launched the New Southbound Policy (NSP) in 2016 as a diplomatic strategy to reduce dependence on China while expanding cooperation networks in Southeast Asia. Unlike China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which emphasizes hard power through infrastructure, NSP relies on soft power instruments such as trade, technology, education, sustainable energy, and people-to-people exchanges. This article argues that Indonesia holds a strategic position in NSP due to its economic capacity, social connectivity through migrant workers, and central role in ASEAN. However, Indonesia’s adherence to the One China Policy and strong economic ties with China create a diplomatic dilemma. Using the frameworks of hedging strategy and soft power diplomacy, this study analyzes how Indonesia navigates engagement with Taiwan through NSP without jeopardizing relations with China. Findings show that NSP opens opportunities for pragmatic cooperation in digital technology, renewable energy, non-traditional security, and academic exchanges. For Indonesia, NSP functions as a soft power-based hedging instrument that strengthens national capacity while maintaining flexibility in the Indo-Pacific geopolitical rivalry.