Analysis of the Influence of Human Capital, Harvested Land Area, and Informal Labor Characteristics on Rice Productivity in 38 Indonesian Provinces in 2020–2025
Keywords:
Fixed Effects Model, Human Capital, Informal Labor, Panel Data, Rice Productivity
Abstract
Amid Indonesia's growing population and declining agricultural land, this study investigated the effects of human capital (years of schooling), harvested area, and informal labor proportion on rice productivity across 38 provinces from 2020-2025. The research employed quantitative panel data analysis using fixed effects regression with robust standard errors on unbalanced panel data (N=212 observations) sourced from BPS and Ministry of Agriculture statistics. Diagnostic tests confirmed model suitability and addressed heteroscedasticity. Results revealed that human capital positively and significantly influenced rice productivity (+1.26 ton/ha per additional schooling year, p=0.003), while informal labor exerted a strong negative effect (-0.154 ton/ha per 1% increase, p=0.001); harvested area showed no significant impact (p=0.589). Simultaneously, all variables jointly affected productivity (F=6.62, p<0.001). The findings underscore the primacy of human capital development and labor formalization over land expansion for enhancing rice productivity, offering critical policy insights for achieving national food security targets.
References
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Central Statistics Agency. (2020–2025b). Average length of schooling of the population aged 15 years and over by province. BPS RI. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTQyOSMy/rata-rata-lama-sekolah-penduduk-umur-15-tahun-ke-atas-menurut-provinsi.html
Central Statistics Agency. (2020–2025c). Harvested area, production, and productivity of rice by province. BPS RI. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTQ5OCMy/luas-panen--produksi--dan-produktivitas-padi-menurut-provinsi.html
Central Statistics Agency. (2020–2025d). Percentage of informal agricultural workforce. BPS RI. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTE3MSMy/persentase-tenaga-kerja-informal-sektor-pertanian--persen-.html
Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric analysis of panel data (6th ed.). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5
Croissant, Y., & Millo, G. (2019). Panel data econometrics with R. John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119504641
Emzir. (2021). Qualitative research methodology: Qualitative data analysis techniques from theoretical, empirical, and applied sources to content, communication, organization, and disciplines. Student Library.
Food and Agriculture Organization. (2021). The state of food and agriculture 2021: Making agrifood systems more resilient to shocks and stresses. F.A.O. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4476en
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2022). Basic econometrics (6th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Hidayat, A., & Wijaya, A. (2024). Spatial analysis of rice field conversion and its implications for rice production in Indonesia. Journal of Geography, 16(2), 45-58.
International Labor Organization. (2018). Women and men in the informal economy: A statistical picture (3rd ed.). ILO.
Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia. (2020–2025). National rice harvest area and production data. Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia.
Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia. (2022). Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Agriculture 2020–2024 (revised). Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia.
Munte, ST (2025). The influence of farmer education level on the adoption of agricultural technology. Circle-Archive, 1(7), 123-135.
Pratiwi, I., Santoso, A., & Rahman, F. (2023). Human capital and rice productivity: Panel evidence from Southeast Asia. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 74(1), 89-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12512
Rahman, F., & Santoso, A. (2022). Factors of rice production in Indonesia: A Cobb-Douglas approach. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 10(2), 78-92.
Sari, DP, & Nugroho, AD (2021). The impact of labor informality on agricultural productivity in Central Java. Indonesian Agribusiness Journal, 9(1), 34-47.
Sudarma, IM, Dj., WS, & Setiawan, IGBD (2024). Agricultural land conversion and its impact on farmer welfare and food security in Bali Province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness (JEPA), 8(1), 113–124. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jepa.2024.008.01.9
Sugiyono. (2023). Quantitative, qualitative, and R&D research methods. Alfabeta.
Sukmana, A., et al. (2023). Global rice production trends and food security challenges in developing countries. Food Policy, 115, 102-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102115
Sunardi. (2024). The influence of education and training on farmer performance in the agribusiness sector. Faculty of Agriculture Student Assignment, 1(2). https://coursework.uma.ac.id/index.php/pertanian/article/view/1268
Susilowati, SH (2020). The phenomenon of aging farmers and the reduction of the young workforce and its implications for agricultural development policy. Agro-Economic Research Forum, 34(1), 35–55. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/135268-ID-fenomena-penuaan-petani-dan-berkurangkan.pdf
Sudaryono. (2022). Industrial economic research methods. Student Library.
Taufik. (2009). Human capital and its effect on economic growth: A case study of selected countries in East and Southeast Asia [Master's Thesis, Gadjah Mada University]. ETD Repository, Gadjah Mada University. https://etd.repository.ugm.ac.id/penelitian/detail/44589
Wulandari, P., et al. (2023). Informal labor flexibility and rice productivity in rural Indonesia. Agricultural Economics Review, 24(3), 56-70.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Published
2026-04-29
How to Cite
Jevon Thavea Anjaro, Deswara Arka Yakobus Assan, Jonathan Kevin Chandra, & Yoel Satria Putra. (2026). Analysis of the Influence of Human Capital, Harvested Land Area, and Informal Labor Characteristics on Rice Productivity in 38 Indonesian Provinces in 2020–2025. International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research, 5(03), 1038-1053. https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i03.3324
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