The Impact of Crop Failure Risk and Harvest Area on Rice Production in Takalar Regency

Abstract

Rice is a strategic commodity that supports national food security. However, increasing rice production is often hampered by land degradation and the threat of crop failure due to climate anomalies. This study aims to analyze the risk levels of rice production and the risk of crop failure, as well as the influence of harvested area and the risk of crop failure on rice production in Takalar Regency. This study uses secondary annual time series data for the period 1990–2025. The risk level is measured using the Coefficient of Variation (CV) method, while the influence between variables is analyzed using multiple linear regression. The results of this study indicate that the average risk level of rice production reaches 17.32%, categorized as low, while the risk of crop failure is 63.84%, categorized as medium. The results of the regression analysis indicate that harvested area has a positive and highly significant effect on rice production, namely that if the harvested area of ​​rice increases by 1%, rice production increases by 0.9163%. Meanwhile, the risk of crop failure has a negative impact on rice production, but not significantly, due to the existence of spatial buffers and effective institutional mitigation. Policies to protect sustainable food crop land and restore soil fertility are recommended to prevent the threat of future production stagnation.