Determinants of Cabbage Export Value from North Sumatra to Taiwan: Evidence from Time Series Data
Keywords:
Export Value, Exchange Rate, Export Volume, Price, Time Series Analysis
Abstract
This study investigates the determinants of cabbage export value from North Sumatra to Taiwan using time-series data from 2021 to 2023. Employing a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis, the research utilizes secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Indonesian Quarantine Information System (IQFAST). The analysis evaluates the influence of the independent variables examined, including exchange rate, export volume, and export price, while the dependent variable is total export value. Empirical results demonstrate that all three independent variables exert a positive and statistically significant impact on export performance. These findings highlight the critical role of macroeconomic stability and market dynamics in shaping agricultural trade. This research contributes to the literature on horticultural economics by providing regional empirical evidence and offering strategic policy insights to bolster Indonesia's export competitiveness.
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Syafiruddin (2013). Trend analysis and factors affecting exports of vegetables in North Sumatra, Thesis at the University of North Sumatra.
Thorbecke, W. (2011). The effect of exchange rate changes on trade in East Asia. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 2(01), 85-102.
Utami, N.M.A.W., Putra, D.D., & Dewi, R.K. (2018). Analysis of competitiveness and influencing factors Indonesian Coffee exports in the international market. Journal Management Agribusiness , 6 (1), 8-15.
Arsanti, I. W., Sayekti, A. L., & Kiloes, A. M. (2017). Analisis rantai nilai komoditas kubis (Brassica oleracea L.): studi kasus di Sentra Produksi Kabupaten Karo (value chain analysis of cabbages: Case study in Karo District production centre). Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Hortikultura, 2, 269-278.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Kara, O. (2005). Income and price elasticities of trade: Some new estimates. The International Trade Journal, 19(2), 165-178.
Barantin (2018). Network Indonesian Quarantine Agency Legal Documentation and Information . https://jdih.karantinaindonesia.go.id/
Bukit, I. M. (2013). Analisis Potensi Ekspor Hasil-Hasil Pertanian Di Kabupaten Karo. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 1(5), 14739.
Bulut, E., & Yaşar, Z. R. (2023). Determinants of export performance in emerging valueet economies: New evidence from a panel quantile regression model. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 73(1), 453-472.
Da Silva, V.d.C., Khrisnamurthi, B. & Harmini (2023). Analisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor ikan tuna beku Indonesia. Forum Agribisnis (Agribusiness Forum). Vol. 13 No. 2 164-178.
Deaton, A., & Laroque, G. (1992). On the behaviour of commodity prices. The Review of Economic Studies, 59(1), 1-23.
Faini, R. (1994). Export supply, capacity and relative prices. Journal of Development Economics, 45(1), 81–100.
Feenstra, R. C. (2015). Advanced international trade: Theory and evidence second edition. Economics Books.
Firmansyah, F., Widodo, W., Karsinah, K., & Oktavilia, S. (2017). Export performance and competitiveness of Indonesian food commodities. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 10(2), 289-301.
Gilarso, T.(2004). Pengantar Ilmu Ekonomi Makro. Yogyakarta: Kanisius Nilai Tukar terhadap Ekspor, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 7 (1), 1-18
Handley, K., & Limão, N. (2017). Policy uncertainty, trade, and welfare: Theory and evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review. 107(9), 2731–2783.
Hasibuan, S. N., Siregar, A., & Rafiki, A. (2023). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor sayur kubis di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Agrica, 16(2), 152-163.
Ibrahim, K. (2018). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volume ekspor kubis indonesia ke Singapura (Bachelor's thesis, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta).
Indriani & Purwito, A. (2018). Ekspor, impor, sistem harmonisasi, nilai pabean dan pajak dalam kepabeanan. (Paten No. EC00201859402).
Karbalaei, A., Md-Yusuf, M., & Ho, C.S. (2014). Trade competitiveness determinants in emerging market and developed countries. Capital Market Review, 22 (1&2), 27-40.
Komalasari, I. (2009). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penawaran ekspor biji kakao .ndonesia. Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB).
Kristanto, J. (2011). Manajemen Pemasaran Internasional: Sebuah Pendekatan Strategi. Erlangga.Jakarta
Krugman, P & Obstfeld, M. (2000), Ekonomi Internasional: Teori Dan Kebijakan. Penerbit Raja Grafindo Perkasa. Jakarta.
Kusuma, R. L., & Firdaus, M. (2015). Daya saing dan faktor yang memengaruhi volume ekspor sayuran Indonesia terhadap negara tujuan utama. Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis, 12(3), 226-236.
Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of Economics, 9th Edition. Cengage Learning, Incorporated.
Mejaya A.S, Fanani, D., & Mawardi, M.K. (2016). Pengaruh produksi, harga internasional, dan nilai tukar terhadap volume ekspor (Studi pada ekspor global teh Indonesia periode tahun 2010-2013). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis. (35)2, 20-29.
Novita, D., Rinanda , T., Riyadh, MI, Rajiah, N., & Fitri , A. (2022). Mapping agricultural superior commodities area in North Sumatra Province. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (977)1, 1-10. IOP Publishing.
Otsuki, T., Chen, M. X., & Wilson, J. S. (2006). Do standards matter for export success? Policy Research Working Papers. The World Bank. 13-9450-3809
Pinem , E.R, Supriana , T., & Ayu, S.F. (2022). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor kubis dari Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia ke Malaysia. Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal, 5(3), 552-558.
Reza, D. M., & Hermawan, M. S. (2024). The effect of production, price, and exchange rate on export volume. Journal of Social Research, 3(3), 901-915.
Rose, A. K., Lockwood, B., & Quah, D. (2000). One Money, One Market: The Effect of Common Currencies on Trade. Economic Policy, 15(30), 9–45.
Rustina, E., Fitrianty , RW, Nufus , RK, Fathonni , MS, & Lestari, SS (2023). Export-Import customs service through Indonesia national single window. International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research . 2(1). 69-80.
Salvatore, D. 2014. International Economics. Salemba Empat.Jakarta .
Soekartawi . 2005. . Agribisnis: Teori dan Aplikasinya. Cetakan Kedelapan. Edisi Pertama. Jakarta: Raja Grafindo Persada
Sugiharti, L., Purwono, R., & Padilla, M. A. E. (2019). Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(4), 2676-2695.
Sukirno , S. (2013). Pengantar Teori Mikro Ekonomi. Penerbit PT. Salemba Empat, Jakarta
Suryanto, S., & Kurniati, P. S. (2022). Analisis perdagangan internasional Indonesia dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya. Intermestic: Journal of International Studies, 7(1), 104-122.
Syafiruddin (2013). Trend analysis and factors affecting exports of vegetables in North Sumatra, Thesis at the University of North Sumatra.
Thorbecke, W. (2011). The effect of exchange rate changes on trade in East Asia. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 2(01), 85-102.
Utami, N.M.A.W., Putra, D.D., & Dewi, R.K. (2018). Analysis of competitiveness and influencing factors Indonesian Coffee exports in the international market. Journal Management Agribusiness , 6 (1), 8-15.
Published
2026-05-30
How to Cite
Masitah, T. H., Panjaitan, F. A. B., & Kadafi, M. R. (2026). Determinants of Cabbage Export Value from North Sumatra to Taiwan: Evidence from Time Series Data. International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research, 5(03), 3445-3460. https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i03.3880
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