Macroeconomic Factors Affecting the Volume of Indonesian Cocoa (Theobroma Cacao L) Exports, 1990–2024

Yosefina Niis; Agnes Quartina Pudjiastuti; Jatmiko Setiaji

doi:10.63922/ijebir.v5i04.3972

Yosefina Niis Master's Program in Agricultural Economics, Graduate School, Tribhuwana Tungga Dewi University, Malang
Agnes Quartina Pudjiastuti Master's Program in Agricultural Economics, Graduate School, Tribhuwana Tungga Dewi University, Malang
Jatmiko Setiaji Master's Program in Agricultural Economics, Graduate School, Tribhuwana Tungga Dewi University, Malang

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i04.3972

Keywords: Exports, cocoa, macroeconomics, consumption, production.

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports from 1990 to 2024. The variables used include world cocoa prices, domestic cocoa prices, domestic coffee prices, domestic rubber prices, domestic CPO prices, domestic cocoa production, domestic cocoa land area, Indonesian cocoa consumption, world coffee production, and world cocoa production, as well as Indonesia's cocoa export volume. This study employs a quantitative approach using 35 years of time-series data. The analysis method used is multiple linear regression in SPSS. The results indicate that only domestic cocoa production has a positive and significant effect, while domestic cocoa consumption has a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's cocoa export volume. The other variables do not have a significant effect. An adjusted R² of 0.677 indicates that this model explains 67.7% of the variation in Indonesia's cocoa export volume, while the remainder is explained by factors outside the model. Domestic cocoa production and consumption play a dominant role in determining Indonesia's cocoa export volume. Therefore, increasing domestic production and consumption is a crucial step in maintaining the stability of Indonesia's cocoa exports.

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