Analysis of the Impact of the Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth in 15 Provinces in Indonesia, 2015–2024
Keywords:
Economic Growth, Demographic Dividend, Labor Force, Domestic Investment, Internet Users, Indonesia, Panel Data
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of the demographic dividend, represented by the dependency ratio, on economic growth while considering the roles of the employed population, domestic investment (PMDN), and Internet users within an integrated analytical model. A quantitative descriptive approach was employed using panel data from 15 Indonesian provinces covering the 2015–2024 period. The data were estimated using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with the Partial Adjustment Model (PAM), incorporating the lagged dependent variable, Ln_PE(-1), to address autocorrelation. The results indicate that previous-period economic growth, the employed population, Internet users, and the interaction between the demographic dividend and the employed population have positive and significant effects on economic growth. In contrast, the demographic dividend and domestic investment do not have significant partial effects. The estimated model explains 99.98% of the variation in economic growth across the provinces (Adjusted R² = 0.999887). These findings suggest that the benefits of the demographic dividend can only be realized when supported by adequate employment opportunities. Therefore, the government should expand employment opportunities and improve the quality of human resources.
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Arguntara, I. K. A., & Sudibia, I. K. (2021). Pengaruh Investasi, Tingkat Pendidikan, Jumlah Penduduk Bekerja Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Bali. E-Jurnal EP Unud, 4950–4976.
Bardesi, H. J. (2020). Measuring the Effect of the Internet on Economic Growth : The Case of Saudi Arabia. 12(12), 61–69. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v12n12p61
Basuki, A. T., & Prawoto, N. (2016). Analisis Regresi Dalam Penelitian Ekonomi dan Bisnis. In Ekonometrika.
Bidisha, S. H., Abdullah, S. M., Siddiqua, S., & Mainul, M. (2020). How Does Dependency Ratio Affect Economic Growth In the Long Run ? Evidence from Selected Asian Countries. 54(2).
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The Demographic. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1274.pdf
BPS Indonesia, S. I. (2024). Jumlah Penduduk Pertengahan Tahun (Ribu Jiwa), 2024. 30 Juni 2025. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTk3NSMy/jumlah-penduduk-pertengahan-tahun--ribu-jiwa-.html
Cuaresma, C. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend ? Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend ? 2014, 299–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0245-x
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (Fifth).
Huda, N. (2022). The Effect Of Foreign And Domestic Investment and Goverment Spending On Growth Central Kalimantan Province Economy 2015-2019. 06(02), 131–136.
Isdari, M. F., Saleh, S. E., & Dai, S. I. S. (2025). Pengaruh Bonus Demografi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Gorontalo. 3(3), 674–678.
Julianto, D., & Mukhtar, R. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Investasi dan Jumlah Penduduk Yang Bekerja Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sumatera Barat Tahun 2005-2020. Jurnal Penelitian Dan Pengkajian Ilmiah Sosial Budaya, 1(1).
Kumalasari, D., & Aisyah, S. (2025). Era Digital : Pengaruh Inovasi Teknologi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Ilmu Ekonomi ISSN, 9, 835–843.
Kusuma, G. A., Putu, N., Setyari, W., Putu, N., Setyari, W., Method, S. C., Cahyadin, M., Ertimi, B. E., Sarmidi, T. T., Marriage, E., Development, H., In, I., & Kharisma, B. (2024). The Role of Economic Digitalization on Economic Performance in Indonesian. Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 17(2).
Maisaroh, N., Habibi, A., & Iqbal, M. (2024). Growth Trends of Internet Users and E-commerce in Increasing Economic Growth in Indonesia. 41–50.
Melo, R. H., Lasulika, C. T., & Saleh, S. E. (2024). Optimalisasi Bonus Demografi Melalui Kebijakan Kependudukan untuk Mendorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. 3(2), 143–148.
Notestein, F. W. (1945). " Population - The Long View ". In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World. University of Chicago Press.
Nurhuda, Syukri, M., Sari, I., & Hendra. (2023). Pengaruh Tenaga Kerja dan Dependency Ratio terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kabupaten Luwu Utara. Jurnal Ekonomi Akuntansi, 1.
Ogawa, N., Mansor, N., Lee, S.-H., Abrigo, M. R. M., & Aris, T. (2021). Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia. Asian Development Riview, 38(1), 32–67.
Panggabean, M. (2020). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Dependency Ratio di Indonesia. 371–387.
Permatasari, N. I., & Himmati, R. (2022). Pengaruh Bonus Demografi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jawa Timur. SENTRI: Jurnal Riset Ilmiah, 1(2), 537–557. https://doi.org/10.55681/sentri.v1i2.256
Purwati, W. D., & Prasetyanto, P. K. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Bonus Demografi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Economina, 1(3), 532–546. https://doi.org/10.55681/economina.v1i3.130
Rostiana, E., & Rodesbi, A. (2020). Transisi Demografi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. April. https://doi.org/10.21831/economia.v16i1.29846
Sabrina, T., Fatimah, S., Sriningsih, S., & Modal, B. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Alokasi Belanja Modal dan Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat. 3(2), 117–126.
Sari, F. E., & Sumanto, A. (2021). Pengaruh PMA dan PMDN terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja pada sub sektor industri pengolahan Kabupaten Mojokerto. 1(10), 1011–1024. https://doi.org/10.17977/um066v1i102021p1011-1024
Satyahadewi, N., Amir, A., & Hendrianto, E. (2023). Proyeksi Peningkatan Perekonomian melalui Pemanfaatan Bonus Demografi 2040. Kaganga:Jurnal Pendidikan Sejarah dan Riset Sosial Humaniora, 6(2), 715–725. https://doi.org/10.31539/kaganga.v6i2.7943
Simangunsong, N. A., & Barika. (2025). Analisis Investasi Dalam Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. JIMEA | Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, dan Akuntansi) Vol. 9 No. 1, 2025 ANALISIS, 9(1), 952–964.
Statistik, B. P. (2025). Rasio ketergantungan. bps.go.id. https://sirusa.web.bps.go.id/metadata/indikator/55048
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic Development. Thirteenth Edition. In Pearson (Nomor 13th Edition). https://www.mkm.ee/en/objectives-activities/economic-development
Tumaleno, A. F., & Riazis, K. R. (2022). Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto di Sulawesi Tenggara. Arus Jurnal Sosial dan Humaniora.
Wardani, N. A. (2024). Analisis Bonus Demografi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Pulau Jawa. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi JIE, 8(02), 144–151. https://doi.org/10.22219/jie.v8i02.31749
Widarjono, A. (2018). Ekonometrika (Pengantar dan Aplikasinya Disertai Panduan EViews) (5 (Kelima)). UPP STIM YKPN.
Published
2026-07-26
How to Cite
Songidah, U., & Ida Budiarty. (2026). Analysis of the Impact of the Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth in 15 Provinces in Indonesia, 2015–2024. International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research, 5(04), 5644-5658. https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i04.5546
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