Determinants Of Urbanization In Indonesia: A Push–Pull Factor Approach
Keywords:
Urbanization; push factors; pull factors; Harris–Todaro model; interaction effects; panel data.
Abstract
Urbanization has become one of the most significant demographic processes influencing economic transformation and regional development in Indonesia. Guided by the Harris–Todaro migration model and Everett S. Lee’s Push–Pull Theory, this study examines the determinants of urbanization by considering both push and pull factors. Using balanced panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia during the 2020–2024 period, the study employs a Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) estimated through the Fixed Effects Model (FEM). The findings reveal that urbanization exhibits strong persistence over time. Rural income inequality, rural open unemployment, and rural educational attainment significantly influence the urbanization process, whereas the average wage of employees in urban areas and the labor force participation rate do not have significant direct effects. Furthermore, the interaction between rural open unemployment and education significantly affects urbanization, indicating that the relationship between labor market conditions and migration varies across educational attainment. These findings suggest that urbanization in Indonesia is driven by economic disparities, labor market conditions, and human capital. Therefore, improving rural education and expanding productive employment are essential for achieving balanced regional development and sustainable urbanization.
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Valdimas, O., Reviane, I. T., & Sabir. (2024). Pengaruh upah minimum terhadap urbanisasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomika dan Dinamika Sosial, 3(1).
Waroi, M. N. A. L. A., Subroto, A., & Supriyadi, I. (2025). Indonesia's demographics in the digital era: Opportunities and challenges towards a golden Indonesia 2045. Asian Journal of Engineering, Social and Health. https://doi.org/10.46799/ajesh.v4i1.512
World Bank. (2023). World urbanization prospects. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Data dan publikasi statistik Indonesia. https://www.bps.go.id
Basuki, A., & Prawoto, N. (2016). Analisis regresi dalam penelitian ekonomi dan bisnis.
Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education (3rd ed.). University of Chicago Press.
Bernard, A., & Bell, M. (2018). Educational selectivity of internal migrants: A global assessment. Demographic Research, 39, 835–854. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.29
Busso, M., Chauvin, J. P., & Herrera L., N. (2021). Rural-urban migration at high urbanization levels. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 91, 103658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103658
Chaplitskaya, A., Heijman, W., van Ophem, J., & Tassinari, G. (2024). Rural-urban migration within Russia: Prospects and drivers. Regional Science Policy and Practice, 16(9), 100053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100053
Chauvin, J. P., Glaeser, E., Ma, Y., & Tobio, K. (2017). What is different about urbanization in rich and poor countries? Journal of Urban Economics, 98, 17–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2016.05.003
Cheng, J., & Lin, F. (2022). The dynamic effects of urban-rural income inequality on sustainable economic growth under urbanization and monetary policy in China. Sustainability, 14(11), 6896. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116896
de Haas, H. (2021). A theory of migration: The aspirations-capabilities framework for migration processes. Comparative Migration Studies, 9(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-020-00210-4
Dartanto, T., et al. (2023). Overeducation and skill mismatch among rural-urban migrants in Indonesia's labor market. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik.
Hadijah, Z., & Sadali, M. I. (2020). The effect of urbanization on poverty reduction in Indonesia. Jurnal Wilayah dan Lingkungan, 8(3), 290–306. https://doi.org/10.14710/jwl.8.3.290-306
Henderson, J. V., & Turner, M. A. (2020). Urbanization in the developing world: Too early or too slow? (NBER Working Paper No. 27201). https://doi.org/10.3386/w27201
Hujaipah, H., Arsa, A., & Zahara, A. E. (2020). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) dan Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP) terhadap tingkat kemiskinan 11 kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jambi (2014–2019). Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan.
Imbert, C., Papp, J., Asher, S., Bazzi, S., Bryan, G., & Burgess, R. (2020). Costs and benefits of rural-urban migration: Evidence from India (Working Paper).
International Labour Organization. (2023). Labour force participation rate indicators. https://ilostat.ilo.org
Irawan, D., et al. (2024). Educated labor mobility and urban labor market adaptation in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan.
Khan, M. I., Alharthi, M., Haque, A., & Illiyan, A. (2023). Statistical analysis of push and pull factors of migration: A case study of India. Journal of King Saud University - Science, 35(8), 102859. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2023.102859
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Mangara, T. H., Saputri, W., & Putri, R. A. (2024). Pengaruh kondisi sosial, ekonomi, dan ketenagakerjaan terhadap migrasi luar negeri di Indonesia. Benefits: Journal of Economics and Tourism, 1(1), 16–32. https://doi.org/10.69836/benefits-jeti.v1i1.983
Marta, J., Fauzi, A., Juanda, B., & Rustiadi, E. (2020). Migrasi desa-kota di Indonesia: Risk coping strategy vs investment. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 20(2), 160–173. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2020.10
Myrdal, G. (1957). Economic theory and under-developed regions. Gerald Duckworth & Co.
Nagashima, M. (2018). A condition for the reduction of urban unemployment in the Harris-Todaro model. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2(1), 243–255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-018-0070-8
Nerlove, M. (1958). Distributed lags and estimation of long-run supply and demand elasticities: Theoretical considerations. Journal of Farm Economics, 40(2), 301–311. https://doi.org/10.2307/1235340
Prima, I. T., & Khoirunurrofik, K. (2019). Economic inequality, regional development, and internal migration in Indonesia. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 65(1), 53. https://doi.org/10.47291/efi.v65i1.606
Poutvaara, P. (2010). Public education in an integrated Europe: Studying to migrate and teaching to stay? Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 112(2), 284–303. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2010.01609.x
Santoso, A. D., Sinaga, B. M., Hartoyo, S., & Hutagaol, M. P. (2018). Dampak kebijakan upah minimum terhadap migrasi internal di Sulawesi Selatan. Sosiohumaniora, 20, 117–187.
Saputra, H., & Rahayu, S. (2015). Hubungan tingkat urbanisasi dan tingkat ketimpangan wilayah. Jurnal Teknik PWK, 4(4).
Simanjuntak, A. H. (2023). Faktor-faktor ekonomi yang memengaruhi migrasi keluar seumur hidup di Pulau Sumatera
Suhab, S., & Sharlyna. (2024). Kinerja makro pembangunan daerah sebagai daya tarik migrasi masuk provinsi di Pulau Sulawesi. Development Policy and Management Review, 4(1).
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson.
United Nations. (2019). World urbanization prospects: The 2018 revision. United Nations.
Valdimas, O., Reviane, I. T., & Sabir. (2024). Pengaruh upah minimum terhadap urbanisasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomika dan Dinamika Sosial, 3(1).
Waroi, M. N. A. L. A., Subroto, A., & Supriyadi, I. (2025). Indonesia's demographics in the digital era: Opportunities and challenges towards a golden Indonesia 2045. Asian Journal of Engineering, Social and Health. https://doi.org/10.46799/ajesh.v4i1.512
World Bank. (2023). World urbanization prospects. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org
Published
2026-07-30
How to Cite
Widia Puspita, & Ida Budiarty. (2026). Determinants Of Urbanization In Indonesia: A Push–Pull Factor Approach. International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research, 5(04), 6225-6238. https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i04.5622
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