Analysis Of The Effect Of Fluctuations In The Price Of Cayenne Pepper And Shallots On Inflation In South Sulawesi Province

Muhammad Dirham Jamaluddin; Syafiuddin Syafiuddin; Mohammad Natsir

doi:10.63922/ijebir.v5i05.6062

Muhammad Dirham Jamaluddin Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar, Jl. Sultan Alauddin No.259, Gn. Sari, Kec. Rappocini, Kota Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan 90221
Syafiuddin Syafiuddin Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar, Jl. Sultan Alauddin No.259, Gn. Sari, Kec. Rappocini, Kota Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan 90221
Mohammad Natsir Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar, Jl. Sultan Alauddin No.259, Gn. Sari, Kec. Rappocini, Kota Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan 90221

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i05.6062

Keywords: Keywords: Inflation, Cayenne Pepper and shallots

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in the price of cayenne pepper and shallots in South Sulawesi Province and to analyze the effect of fluctuations in the price of chili peppers and shallots on inflation in South Sulawesi Province. The method used is a quantitative method with a descriptive approach with an analysis tool using Vector Autoregression (VAR).

The results of the study conclude that the development of cayenne pepper and onion commodity prices in the period 2020-2024 can be said to tend to fluctuate, Based on the results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis, it can be concluded that the shocks that occur in the variables of cayenne pepper prices, onion prices and inflation only have an effect in the short term. Based on the results of the FEVD test for the next 12 periods, it can be concluded that inflation is still the most dominant factor in explaining inflation variations, with a contribution of around 73.62% in the final period. However, the price of cayenne pepper has a slightly greater influence (13.51%) compared to shallots (12.87%) on changes in inflation.

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