Sustainability Of Fishery Ecosystems On Sumatra Island : The Role Of Poverty, Fishing Activities, And Population Pressure
Abstract
Fisheries are important for food security, employment, income, and coastal livelihoods, but increasing pressure on capture fisheries may undermine the long-term sustainability of fishery-dependent economies. This study examines the roles of poverty, fishing activities, and population pressure in explaining the sustainability-oriented structure of fishery production across 65 regencies/cities on Sumatra Island, Indonesia. The study uses panel data for 2020–2024, producing 324 observations. The Fishery Sustainability Indicator (FSI) is measured as the share of aquaculture production in total fishery production and is interpreted as a production-structure proxy rather than a direct ecological measure of ecosystem health. Poverty is measured by the percentage of the population living in poverty, fishing activities by the number of fishermen, and population pressure by population growth. Panel-data estimation is performed using common, fixed, and random effects, with model selection based on the Chow, Hausman, and Breusch–Pagan tests. The results support the Random Effects Model. Fishing activities have a negative and statistically significant effect on FSI, while poverty and population pressure are statistically insignificant. The overall model is statistically significant. The findings indicate that greater participation in capture fishing is associated with a less sustainability-oriented structure of local fishery production. Policy priorities should therefore include fishing-pressure management, livelihood diversification, sustainable aquaculture, and place-based fisheries governance
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