Large-Scale Implementation E5 To Support National Energy Self-Sufficiency
Abstract
This study assesses the feasibility of large-scale E5 gasoline implementation in Indonesia by integrating molasses availability, fuel-grade ethanol capacity, market access, pricing, and projected E100 demand. A descriptive quantitative design was combined with regulatory and supply-chain analyses using official statistics, ministerial regulations, company information, 2020-2024 molasses trade data, bioethanol Market Index Prices from April to July 2026, 182 Pertamax Green 95 retail locations, and regional gasoline demand estimates. Material-balance calculations, percentage analysis, scenario modelling, and spatial interpretation were applied. Indonesia produced 1.636 million tonnes of molasses in 2024, while net exports reached 444,762 tonnes (27.18%), indicating intense competition between energy and non-energy uses. Verified fuel-grade ethanol capacity of 63 million litres per year could supply only 1.26 million kL of E5, equivalent to 6.41% of the projected E5 requirement for Java. Converting 50% of non-fuel ethanol capacity at a 97% dehydration efficiency increased potential E100 supply to 209.54 million litres per year, but covered only 21.33% of Java's demand. The July 2026 bioethanol Market Index Price reached IDR 10,933 per litre, confirming substantial exposure to molasses prices and exchange-rate movements. Large-scale E5 implementation therefore requires verified feedstock balances, quality-based molasses contracts, adaptive regional pricing, selective dehydration retrofits, cluster-based distribution, and bankable medium-term offtake agreements.
References
Balat, M., & Balat, H. (2009). Recent trends in global production and utilization of bio-ethanol fuel. Applied Energy, 86(11), 2273-2282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.03.015
Directorate General of Oil and Gas. (2023). Decree of the Director General of Oil and Gas No. 252.K/HK.02/DJM/2023 on the standards and quality specifications for RON 95 gasoline containing 5% bioethanol (E5) marketed domestically. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
Directorate General of Oil and Gas. (2024). Oil and gas statistics: First semester 2024. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
Directorate General of Estate Crops. (2025). Estate crop statistics, volume 1, 2024-2026: Sugarcane. Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia.
Hawaz, E., Tafesse, M., Tesfaye, A., Kiros, S., Beyene, D., Kebede, G., Boekhout, T., Groenewald, M., Theelen, B., Degefe, A., Degu, S., Admasu, A., Hunde, B., & Muleta, D. (2022). Optimization of bioethanol production from sugarcane molasses by response surface methodology using a new isolate of Meyerozyma caribbica. Annals of Microbiology, 72, Article 39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13213-022-01706-3
International Energy Agency. (2023). Transport biofuels. In Renewables 2023.
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. (2016). Ministerial Decree of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 6034 K/12/MEM/2016 on the Market Index Price of biofuels blended into petroleum fuels.
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. (2025). Ministerial Regulation of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 4 of 2025 on the commercial operation and utilisation of biofuels.
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. (2026). Ministerial Decree of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 113.K/EK.05/MEM.E/2026 on the phased utilisation of biofuels.
Ministry of Agriculture. (2025). Sugar trade performance analysis 2025. Center for Agricultural Data and Information Systems.
Ministry of Agriculture. (2025). Sugarcane estate commodity outlook 2025. Center for Agricultural Data and Information Systems.
Khatiwada, D., & Silveira, S. (2017). Scenarios for bioethanol production in Indonesia: How can we meet mandatory blending targets? Energy, 119, 351-361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.073
Mussatto, S. I., Dragone, G., Guimaraes, P. M. R., Silva, J. P. A., Carneiro, L. M., Roberto, I. C., Vicente, A., Domingues, L., & Teixeira, J. A. (2010). Technological trends, global market, and challenges of bio-ethanol production. Biotechnology Advances, 28(6), 817-830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biotechadv.2010.07.001
Nandi, S., Gonela, V., & Awudu, I. (2023). A resource-based and institutional theory-driven model of large-scale biomass-based bioethanol supply chains: An emerging economy policy perspective. Biomass and Bioenergy, 174, 106813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2023.106813
Government of the Republic of Indonesia. (2023). Presidential Regulation No. 40 of 2023 on accelerating national sugar self-sufficiency and supplying bioethanol as a biofuel.
Pertamina Patra Niaga. (2026). Latest fuel prices.
PT Energi Agro Nusantara. (2019). Ethanol 99.5% from sugarcane molasses.
PT Molindo Raya Industrial. (2026). PT Molindo Raya Industrial company profile.
Rachman, I. (2025). Sustainable competitive advantage in Indonesia's bioethanol industry: Key variables and ecosystem model. Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education, 7(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.asci3784
Rifa'i, A. F., Setyawati, R. B., Setiawan, C. P., Waluyo, J., & Pamungkas, W. A. (2022). A techno-economic study of molasses-based bioethanol as an alternative substitute for petroleum fuels. Equilibrium Journal of Chemical Engineering, 6(1), 57-68. https://doi.org/10.20961/equilibrium.v6i1.63158
Tse, T. J., Wiens, D. J., & Reaney, M. J. T. (2021). Production of bioethanol: A review of factors affecting ethanol yield. Fermentation, 7(4), 268. https://doi.org/10.3390/fermentation7040268
Zahroh, S. F., Syamsu, K., Haditjaroko, L., & Kartawiria, I. S. (2021). Potential and prospect of various raw materials for bioethanol production in Indonesia: A review. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 749(1), 012060. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/749/1/012060
.png)
Contact Person +6282139474255
Email : ijeterjournal@gmail.com
