The Contribution of Social Media (Instagram) to Voting Decisions with Public Trust as a Moderating Variable
Keywords:
Instagram usage intensity, public trust, voting decisions
Abstract
Social media platforms, particularly Instagram, have transformed political communication and voter engagement in contemporary democracies. However, the extent to which digital exposure translates into concrete electoral decisions remains contingent on underlying psychological and institutional factors. This study examines the influence of Instagram usage intensity on voting decisions among residents of Malang City, Indonesia, and evaluates the moderating role of public trust in this relationship. Employing a quantitative correlational design, data were collected from 400 registered voters using validated scales for Instagram intensity, voting decisions, and public trust. Simple linear regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) were utilized to test direct and conditional effects. The initial model revealed a minimal direct effect of Instagram intensity on voting decisions (R² = 0.000). However, introducing public trust as a moderator significantly enhanced the model’s explanatory power (R² = 0.039, F = 7.170, p = 0.001), indicating that the relationship between digital political exposure and electoral choice is conditional. Public trust functions as an amplifying mechanism, strengthening the translation of Instagram-based political content into informed voting preferences. These findings challenge deterministic media-effects paradigms by demonstrating that social media’s electoral influence is activated within high-trust environments. Practically, political strategists and electoral commissions should integrate trust-building initiatives with digital campaigning to foster rational voter participation. The study contributes to digital political communication literature by positioning institutional trust as a critical boundary condition in contemporary electoral behavior.
References
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Miller, S., Menard, P., Bourrie, D., & Sittig, S. (2024). Integrating truth bias and elaboration likelihood to understand how political polarisation impacts disinformation engagement on social media. Information Systems Journal, 34(3), 642–679. https://doi.org/10.1111/ISJ.12418;JOURNAL:JOURNAL:13652575;PAGE:STRING:ARTICLE/CHAPTER
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Randy, D., Vera, N., & Wahid, U. (2020). Budaya Literasi Dalam Perspektif Tanggung Jawab Sosial. Promedia (Public Relation Dan Media Komunikasi), 6(1). https://doi.org/10.52447/promedia.v6i1.3525
Rescanila, W., Prabowo, H., & Santoso, D. (2024). Pengaruh Instagram terhadap partisipasi politik generasi muda pada Pilkada 2024. Jurnal Komunikasi Dan Media Sosial, 8(2), 121–135. https://doi.org/10.31004/jkms.v8i2.2335
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Rozie, A., Riauan, I., Oktalisa, N. E., & Manaf, A. M. A. (2024). Content Analysis of Instagram by Indonesian Presidential Candidate 2024. Proceedings International Conference on Communication and Media Digital, 1(1), 257–268.
Shandy, R. K. A., & Pramudyo, G. N. (2023). Literasi Media Sosial Instagram Mahasiswa Ilmu Perpustakaan Universitas Diponegoro Dalam Menentukan Informasi Yang Dipercaya. Anuva Jurnal Kajian Budaya Perpustakaan Dan Informasi, 7(3), 529–546. https://doi.org/10.14710/anuva.7.3.529-546
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Zmerli, S., & Newton, K. (2008). Social Trust and Attitudes Toward Democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(4), 706–724. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn054
Al-Kandari, A., & Al-Hunaiyyan, A. (2023). Digital media literacy and political decision-making: The moderating role of social media use in developing countries. Journal of Information, Communication and Ethics in Society, 21(3), 351–367. https://doi.org/10.1108/JICES-09-2022-0109
Al-khazraji, S., Saleh, H. H., Khalid, A., & Mishkhal, I. (2023). Impact of Deepfake Technology on Social Media: Detection, Misinformation and Societal Implications. The Eurasia Proceedings of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics, 23, 429–441. https://doi.org/10.55549/epstem.1371792
An-Nasser, A., Retpitasari, E., Inayah, A., & A.L, D. V. (2024). Social Media Impact of Kediri Election Commission in Increasing Participation Election in 2024. Komunike, 16(1), 29–54. https://doi.org/10.20414/jurkom.v16i1.9826
Arrois, A., & Purnamasari, D. (2023). Strategi kampanye politik digital melalui Instagram dalam pemilu Indonesia. Jurnal Studi Komunikasi, 7(3), 412–426. https://doi.org/10.25139/jsk.v7i3.5403
Aslett, K., Guess, A. M., Bonneau, R., Nagler, J., & Tucker, J. A. (2022). News credibility labels have limited average effects on news diet quality and fail to reduce misperceptions. Science Advances, 8(18), eabl3844. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abl3844
Boer, K. M., Hairunisa, H., & Hadad, N. A. (2024). Literasi Digital Pelajar Sebagai Pemilih Pemula Menjelang Pemilihan Umum 2024 Di SMAN 11 Samarinda. Abdi Jurnal Pengabdian Dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat, 6(1), 65–71. https://doi.org/10.24036/abdi.v6i1.820
Boler, Megan., & Davis, Elizabeth. (2021). Affective politics of digital media : propaganda by other means. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group.
Boulianne, S. (2023). Social media use and participation: A meta-analysis of current research. Information, Communication & Society, 26(4), 721–739. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2015.1008542
Caled, D., & Silva, M. J. (2021). Digital Media and Misinformation: An Outlook on Multidisciplinary Strategies Against Manipulation. Journal of Computational Social Science, 5(1), 123–159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42001-021-00118-8
Dahurandi, K. (2023). Literasi Manusia, Sosial Dan Religius Dalam Menghadapi Era Industri 4.0 Dan Era Masyarakat 5.0 Human, Sosial and Religius Literacy in Facing the Industry Era 4.0 and Society Era 5.0. Jurnal Alternatif Wacana Ilmiah Interkultural, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.60130/ja.v11i1.72
Diepeveen, S., & Pinet, M. (2022). User Perspectives on Digital Literacy as a Response to Misinformation. Development Policy Review, 40(S2). https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12671
Fatema, S., Yanbin, L., & Fugui, D. (2022). Social media influence on politicians’ and citizens’ relationship through the moderating effect of political slogans. Frontiers in Communication, 7, 955493. https://doi.org/10.3389/FCOMM.2022.955493/TEXT
Fatmawati, E. (2020). Tantangan Literasi Informasi Bagi Generasi Muda Pada Era Post-Truth. Jurnal Perpustakaan Pertanian, 28(2), 57. https://doi.org/10.21082/jpp.v28n2.2019.p57-66
Fauwasz, M., & Faisal, A. (2024). Peran media sosial dalam membentuk preferensi politik masyarakat lokal. Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Sosial Politik, 6(2), 201–214. https://doi.org/10.23969/jpsp.v6i2.XXXX
Fauziah, A. R., Bimantara, C. S., Bahrenina, K. A., & Pertiwi, Y. E. (2023). Meningkatkan Kualitas Pemilu Serentak Tahun 2024 Melalui Pemanfaatan Teknologi Digital. Jurnal Kajian Konstitusi, 3(1), 51. https://doi.org/10.19184/j.kk.v3i1.39022
Fayaz Ahmad, S., & Irshad, M. (2025). Impact of social media fake news on social, political and ethical behavior by considering the moderating role of hostile attribution bias. Journal of Information, Communication and Ethics in Society, 23(3), 344–366. https://doi.org/10.1108/JICES-09-2024-0140
Febriani, N. S. (2020). Preferensi Media Sosial Generasi Milenial Pada Tingkat Pengetahuan Calon Legislatif. Nyimak Journal of Communication, 4(1), 89. https://doi.org/10.31000/nyimak.v4i1.2225
Gillissen, M., Goubin, S., & Ruelens, A. (2024). Securing the welfare of the people to foster democratic engagement? A longitudinal analysis on the impact of economic inequality and social welfare policies on political trust and participation in Europe - KU Leuven. HIVA-Poverty and Social Inclus. https://kuleuven.limo.libis.be/discovery/fulldisplay?docid=lirias4152247&context=SearchWebhook&vid=32KUL_KUL:Lirias&lang=en&search_scope=lirias_profile&adaptor=SearchWebhook&tab=LIRIAS&query=any,contains,LIRIAS4152247&offset=0
Hamidah, Q. (2023). Implikasi Regulasi Undang-Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 2017 Terhadap Money Politic Melalui E-Wallet Dalam Pemilu 2024. Qaumiyyah Jurnal Hukum Tata Negara, 4(2), 43–60. https://doi.org/10.24239/qaumiyyah.v4i2.83
Harianja, G. P. D., Yudartha, I. P. D., & Prabawati, N. P. A. (2024). Strategi Komisi Pemilihan Umum Kota Denpasar Dalam Meningkatkan Partisipasi Pemilih Pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Serentak Tahun 2020. SHKR, 1(3), 88–105. https://doi.org/10.61292/shkr.120
Hayes, A. F. (2022). Introduction to Mediation, Moderation, and Conditional Process Analysis: A Regression-Based Approach (3rd ed.). The Guilford Press.
Hoesin, C. F. I. S., & Poplavskaya, N. (2023). Building Media Literacy in Indonesia With the Support of International Organizations. Rudn Journal of Studies in Literature and Journalism, 28(4), 818–829. https://doi.org/10.22363/2312-9220-2023-28-4-818-829
Indryani, R., Nugroho, Y., & Sari, P. (2025). Media sosial, komunikasi interpersonal, dan pembentukan perilaku pemilih muda. Journal of Civic and Social Communication, 4(1), 55–70. https://doi.org/10.5430/jcsc.v4i1.XXXX
Ismail, L., Juleha, J., HS, N. F. R., Ikhsan, F., Wahyuddin, & Wahyudi, D. (2024). Tinjauan Sosiologis Pemilih Pemula Terhadap Tantangan Transformasi Pemilu 2024. Aksiologi Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Ilmu Sosial. https://doi.org/10.47134/aksiologi.v5i1.195
Jost, J. T., Baldassarri, D. S., & Druckman, J. N. (2022). Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts. Nature Reviews Psychology 2022 1:10, 1(10), 560–576. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44159-022-00093-5
Khan, M. L., Idris, I. K., & Rahman, T. (2021). Political micro-targeting on Instagram: Visual persuasion, emotions, and voter behavior. New Media & Society, 23(10), 3112–3130. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444820951525
Lee, S., & Xenos, M. (2020). Incidental news exposure via social media and political participation: Evidence of reciprocal effects. New Media and Society, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444820962121
Loader, B. D., & Mercea, D. (2012). Social media and democracy: Innovations in participatory politics. Information, Communication & Society, 15(5), 757–769. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2012.665596
Malik, O. F., Pichler, S., Shahzad, A., & Jawad, N. (2025). Political climate and workplace cyberbullying perpetration: a multilevel moderated mediation model. BMC Psychology 2025 13:1, 13(1), 900-. https://doi.org/10.1186/S40359-025-03239-1
Mayer, R. C., Davis, J. H., & Schoorman, F. D. (1995). An Integrative Model of Organizational Trust. Academy of Management Review, 20, 709–734. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1995.9508080335
Miller, S., Menard, P., Bourrie, D., & Sittig, S. (2024). Integrating truth bias and elaboration likelihood to understand how political polarisation impacts disinformation engagement on social media. Information Systems Journal, 34(3), 642–679. https://doi.org/10.1111/ISJ.12418;JOURNAL:JOURNAL:13652575;PAGE:STRING:ARTICLE/CHAPTER
Niza, I. H., Mawarpury, M., Sulistyani, A., & Rachmatan, R. (2022). Critical Thinking Ability and Information Literacy in Identifying Fake News on Social Media Users. Jurnal Psikologi Terapan Dan Pendidikan, 4(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.26555/jptp.v4i1.23357
Norris, P. (2022). In Praise of Skepticism: Trust but Verify. Oxford University Press.
Pratama, R. R., Ikhsan, F. A., & Erawati, D. (2022). Eksistensi Media Sosial KPU Provinsi Kalimantan Tengah Dalam Mensosialisasikan Pilgub Tahun 2020 Di Kota Palangka Raya. Neraca Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 8(1), 25–37. https://doi.org/10.33084/neraca.v8i1.4340
Puspita, R., Wijaya, A., & Hakim, L. (2025). Instagram dan pembentukan identitas politik generasi Z. International Journal of Social Science Research, 5(1), 66–80. https://doi.org/10.5281/ijssr.v5i1.867
Randy, D., Vera, N., & Wahid, U. (2020). Budaya Literasi Dalam Perspektif Tanggung Jawab Sosial. Promedia (Public Relation Dan Media Komunikasi), 6(1). https://doi.org/10.52447/promedia.v6i1.3525
Rescanila, W., Prabowo, H., & Santoso, D. (2024). Pengaruh Instagram terhadap partisipasi politik generasi muda pada Pilkada 2024. Jurnal Komunikasi Dan Media Sosial, 8(2), 121–135. https://doi.org/10.31004/jkms.v8i2.2335
Romdani, L. N., & Suryadi, K. (2021). Pilkada Dalam Pandemic: Bagaimana Warga Negara Memaknai Demokrasi Indonesia. Jurnal Kewarganegaraan, 18(2), 74. https://doi.org/10.24114/jk.v18i2.23416
Rozie, A., Riauan, I., Oktalisa, N. E., & Manaf, A. M. A. (2024). Content Analysis of Instagram by Indonesian Presidential Candidate 2024. Proceedings International Conference on Communication and Media Digital, 1(1), 257–268.
Shandy, R. K. A., & Pramudyo, G. N. (2023). Literasi Media Sosial Instagram Mahasiswa Ilmu Perpustakaan Universitas Diponegoro Dalam Menentukan Informasi Yang Dipercaya. Anuva Jurnal Kajian Budaya Perpustakaan Dan Informasi, 7(3), 529–546. https://doi.org/10.14710/anuva.7.3.529-546
Tang, G., & Lee, F. L. F. (2022). Trust, social media, and political participation. Social Media + Society, 8(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1177/20563051221102263
Temporão, M. (2026). “Infoxicated” feelings? How affective polarization and misinformation reinforce each other in the US and France. French Politics 2026 24:1, 24(1), 151–173. https://doi.org/10.1057/S41253-026-00314-W
Tresnani, V. F., & Adhitya, M. D. K. (2023). Optimalisasi Keterlibatan Pemuda Sebagai Generasi Perubahan Dalam Sistem Demokrasi Melalui Pemilihan Umum 2024. Yustisia Merdeka Jurnal Ilmiah Hukum, 9(2), 44–54. https://doi.org/10.33319/yume.v9i2.238
Yunas, N. S., Said, M. F., & Aziz, A. (2023). Penguatan Literasi Digital Pada Generasi Millenial Dalam Menyongsong Pemilihan Umum 2024. Surya Abdimas, 7(4), 715–726. https://doi.org/10.37729/abdimas.v7i4.3432
Zmerli, S., & Newton, K. (2008). Social Trust and Attitudes Toward Democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(4), 706–724. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfn054
Published
2026-06-11
How to Cite
Abd. Hamid Cholili, Emha Zainul Mukminin, Aprilia Mega Rosdiana, & Firman Nur Wahyudi. (2026). The Contribution of Social Media (Instagram) to Voting Decisions with Public Trust as a Moderating Variable. International Journal of Education, Vocational and Social Science , 5(03), 770-787. https://doi.org/10.63922/ijevss.v5i03.3427
Contact Person +6282139474255
Email : ijevss@citakonsultindo.or.id / editor.ijevss@gmail.com
