Drought Characterization Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Method in the Ogan Ilir Region, South Sumatra
Keywords:
Drought Characterization, El Niño, Ogan Ilir, SPI, South Sumatra
Abstract
Ogan Ilir Regency, South Sumatra, is vulnerable to meteorological drought and land fires due to extreme rainfall variability and the influence of El Niño. This study aims to characterize drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1, 3, and 6-month scales for the period 1995-2024, along with spatial mapping and correlation with forest and land fire hotspots. A quantitative approach was applied to monthly rainfall data from the BMKG SMB II Palembang station (360 observations) as a purposive sample. Analysis techniques include SPI calculations based on gamma distribution, WMO classification, GIS interpolation, and statistical correlation. The results show recurrent droughts of moderate to extreme intensity (SPI ≤ -3.0), peaks in July-September, strong correlations with El Niño in 1997, 2015, and 2023, and the highest hotspot in Pemulutan District. SPI is effective as an early indicator for disaster mitigation.
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Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. D. (2023). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches (6th ed.). SAGE Publications.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-13144-9
Emzir. (2022). Quantitative research methodology (3rd Edition). Prenada Media Group.
Fajri, MR, Santoso, PB, & Pratama, A. (2023). Analysis of peatland vulnerability to fire in South Sumatra using the SPI index. Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 24(2), 45–56.https://doi.org/10.22337/jmg.v24i2.1567
Hidayat, R., Pratama, R., & Susanto, A. (2021). Rainfall variability and the impact of El Niño in South Sumatra. Journal of Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics, 12(1), 12–25.
KLHK. (2019). Peatland and swamp map of South Sumatra Province. Ministry of Environment and Forestry.
KLHK. (2022). Indonesian environmental statistics: Forest and land fires. Ministry of Environment and Forestry.
McKee, T. B.N., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 179–184.
McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., & Glantz, M. H. (2006). ENSO as an integrating concept in Earth science. Science, 314(5806), 1740–1745.https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1122255
Nugroho, AP, Sari, DP, & Widodo, B. (2023). Correlation of meteorological drought with hotspots in Ogan Ilir using the SPI method. Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, 13(1), 89–102.https://doi.org/10.29244/jpsdal.13.1.89-102
Pratama, A., Hidayat, R., & Fajri, MR (2022). Drought characterization in South Sumatra based on the Standardized Precipitation Index. Journal of Geography and Environment, 10(2), 112–125.https://doi.org/10.22146/jgl.67890
Sari, NK, Nugroho, AP, & Pratama, R. (2025). A forest and land fire early warning system based on drought index in peatland areas. Journal of Disaster Management, 7(1), 34–47.https://doi.org/10.1234/jmb.v7i1.456
Sugiyono. (2021). Quantitative, qualitative, and R&D research methods. Alfabeta.
Sudaryono. (2024). Scientific research methodology for public administration. Gava Media.https://doi.org/10.47134/pjg.v3i2.2345
Surmaini, E. (2016). Drought risk mitigation strategies in the agricultural sector. Agro-Economic Research Forum, 34(1), 1–13.
Susilowati, A., Pratama, R., & Hidayat, R. (2018). Spatial variation of rainfall in Ogan Ilir Regency. Agromet Journal, 32(3), 156–167.
Syafitri, A., Kurniawati, N., & Irfan, M. (2024). SPI analysis for forest and land fire prediction in Ogan Ilir. Sriwijaya University Repository.http://repository.unsri.ac.id/152944/
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate, 23(7), 1696–1718.https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Wilhite, D. A., & Pulwarty, R. S. (2005). Drought as a disaster: Understanding impacts and vulnerabilities. In Drought and water crises (pp. 1–22). CRC Press.
WMO. (2012). Standardized precipitation index user guide. World Meteorological Organization.https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-1993
Published
2026-06-22
How to Cite
Adelia Syafitri, Netty Kurniawati, & Muhammad Irfan. (2026). Drought Characterization Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Method in the Ogan Ilir Region, South Sumatra. International Journal of Education, Vocational and Social Science , 5(03), 2286-2297. https://doi.org/10.63922/ijevss.v5i03.4549
Contact Person +6282139474255
Email : ijevss@citakonsultindo.or.id / editor.ijevss@gmail.com
