From Failure to Anticipation: Rethinking Hydrometeorological Flood Governance in Aceh Tamiang

Sitti Hafsa Sara Bitu; Nurlia Nurdin

doi:10.63922/ijevss.v5i03.5464

Sitti Hafsa Sara Bitu Department of Public Administration, NIPA School of Administration Jakarta, Indonesia
Nurlia Nurdin Institute Governance of Home Affairs

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63922/ijevss.v5i03.5464

Keywords: Aceh Tamiang, anticipatory governance, disaster governance, FIELD–SCOPES, flood governance

Abstract

This study analyzes the failure of hydrometeorological disaster governance in the case of recurrent floods in Aceh Tamiang District in November–December 2025, which caused extensive inundation, severe infrastructure damage, and the displacement of tens of thousands of people. The research departs from the gap between technical capacity for flood risk modelling and documented vulnerability of the Krueng Tamiang watershed, and policy practice dominated by reactive crisis management. The anticipatory governance framework—comprising future readiness, innovation, endurance, long-term perspective, and direction, alongside enabling factors like leadership support, competencies, observation of trends, participatory processes, and structures—is used to evaluate how spatial and disaster data are converted into anticipatory policy decisions. The study employs a qualitative single-case study design with data drawn from scientific publications, policy documents, disaster statistics, and humanitarian reports, analyzed through theory-driven thematic analysis based on this framework. The results show that core weaknesses do not lie in data availability, but in a weak authorising environment, limited institutional capacity, and the dominance of extractive interests over land and coastal ecosystems, which hinder internalising anticipatory dimensions into spatial policy. The paper proposes strengthening the foresight function in local planning agencies, applying foresight impact assessment to major infrastructure projects, establishing a cross-actor disaster intelligence alliance, and enhancing risk data transparency to institutionalise anticipatory flood governance in Aceh Tamiang.

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